Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias cov kws kho mob loj heev ntsib cov patent tas sij hawm rau ntau tshaj $ 100 billion tus nqi ntawm cov tshuaj los ntawm 2030. Piv txwv li, Merck's PD-1 inhibitor Keytruda (pembrolizumab) tau tsim ib qho staggering $ 29.48 nphom hauv kev muag khoom hauv 2024- ze li ntawm 40% ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub tuam txhab. 2028. Ib yam li ntawd, Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMS) Opdivo (lwm PD-1 inhibitor), Eliquis (anticoagulant), thiab Novo Nordisk lub hnub qub khoom semaglutide yuav plam exclusivity nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej, ntsib tag nrho-scale generic kev sib tw.
Ntawm 2026 JPM Lub Rooj Sib Tham Txog Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv, cov tuam txhab tshuaj ntau lub teb chaws tau nthuav tawm lawv txoj kev vam meej thiab ntev - cov tswv yim lub sij hawm- tsom tsis yog tsuas yog txo qis pob zeb patent xwb tab sis kuj tseem tiv thaiv cov tshuaj blockbuster tom ntej.
01 Pipeline Diversification thiab "Portfolio Strategy"
Txhawm rau zam kom tsis txhob muaj nyiaj tau los ntawm cov blockbusters tas sij hawm, ntau lub tebchaws tau ua qhov tseem ceebrhuav kev cia siab rau ib leeg "king drug"thiab tsim cov kav dej sib txawv. Qhov "portfolio mindset" no hloov tsom los ntawm kev caum lwm tus super-blockbuster mus rau kis kev pheej hmoo los ntawm ntau- khoom, ntau- thaj chaw kho mob, thiab ntau- theem layouts.
Sanofi ua piv txwv li no. Nws cov tshuaj tseem ceeb Dupixent (dupilumab)- lub cav loj hlob nrog 2024 muag tshaj $ 14 nphom- ntsib patent tas sij hawm xyoo 2031. Es tsis txhob betting rau ib tus neeg ua tiav, Sanofi tab tom txhim kho lub sijhawm lig - theem kav dej txuas rau kab mob tiv thaiv kab mob, kab mob ua pa, thiab kab mob ua pa.
Ntawm JPM 2026, Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson tau hais txog kev txhim kho kev lag luam hnyav (BD) kev siv zog thiab npaj yuav ntxiv 8-12 siab- zoo thaum ntxov- cov khoom muaj nqis, nrog rau cov khoom siv tseem ceeb (kev pom zoo, kev nyeem ntawv kho mob) xav tau los ntawm 2027. Thaum ntxov lub hlis no, Sanofi tau koom tes nrog {6} bioverseas Suav ntawm Huashen Pharma) rau $ 160 lab ua ntej los tsim cov tshuaj tiv thaiv bispecific rau cov kab mob autoimmune- ncaj qha ua rau nws muaj ntau haiv neeg thiab lwm lub hom phiaj kev tsim kho tshiab.
BMS tau cog lus sib npaug rau kev sib txawv ntawm cov kav dej los tiv thaiv kev poob patent. CEO Chris Boerner tau hais tias BD yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev faib peev txheej tseem ceeb rau 2026, tsom rau 10+ cov tshuaj tshiab pib los ntawm 2030 thoob plaws ntau qhov chaw kho mob. Ntawm JPM, BMS tau hais txog rau 6 lub raj xa dej nrog $ 1 billion + kev muag khoom muaj peev xwm: tshuaj tiv thaiv kab mob Cobenfy (xanomeline + trospium), anticoagulant Milvexian, pulmonary fibrosis tshuaj Admilparant, PD-L1/VEGF-A bispecific Pumitamig, thiab ob lub molecular kua nplaum Mezigdomide)- npog neuroscience, hlab plawv, immunology, thiab oncology.
Boerner tau sau tseg tias BMS tau ua tiav $ 30 nphom hauv kev cog lus ntau dua ob xyoos (tsib xyoo 2025) thiab yuav txuas ntxiv kev lag luam tawm tswv yim rau kev loj hlob.
Tom qab xyoo 2025 cov kev hloov pauv kev coj noj coj ua, kev tawm haujlwm, thiab thaum ntxov -txoj haujlwm ua haujlwm, Novo Nordisk tab tom ua kom muaj kev sib txawv ntawm cov kav dej. Ntawm JPM, lub tuam txhab tau lees paub nws qhov kev coj noj coj ua rog thaum nthuav dav rau lwm cov kab mob metabolic. CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar tau tshaj tawm 12 qhov kev pom zoo hauv 2025 thiab npaj kom tau txais cov khoom muaj nqis tshiab / platforms-tsis muaj kev txwv ntawm keeb kwm (xws li Tuam Tshoj, Nyiv, thiab Lub Tebchaws Yelemees).
02 Tsom ntsoov rau siab -Cov cuab yeej sib txawv
Qee cov neeg muaj ntau haiv neeg tab tom siv txoj hauv kev "zoo tshaj qhov ntau"-txiav cov haujlwm tsis meej thiab tsom mus rau cov peev txheej ntawmsiab -kev sib txawv, kev tsim kho tshiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo. Ntawm JPM 2026, "R & D efficiency" thiab "kev sib tw sib txawv" yog cov lus zoo tshaj plaws, nrog rau cov tuam txhab hais txog R & D restructuring.
Roche tau qhia txog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev sib koom ua ke rau kev ua kom zoo ntawm JPM 2025, txiav 30% ntawm nws cov kav dej sab hauv. Cov peev txheej tam sim no tsom mus rau cov haujlwm npaj los daws cov qauv kev saib xyuas tshiab- feem ntau hauv oncology, neuroscience, thiab immunology. Los ntawm 2030, Roche lub hom phiaj yuav tshaj tawm 19 cov tshuaj tshiab, 17 nrog $ 1 nphom + muag txhua xyoo thiab 9 nrog $ 3 billion + lub peev xwm siab tshaj. Xyoo 2026, Roche yuav qhia Phase III cov ntaub ntawv rau tsib lub koom haum tshiab molecular (NMEs) tsom rau cov kev xav tau tsis txaus hauv qhov hnyav (cov lus teb tsis zoo, kev ua siab ntev, toj siab, rov qab los, cov leeg tsis muaj zog, muaj teeb meem). Ua ntej JPM, Roche tau them $ 100 lab rau daim ntawv tso cai GLP-1-txog patents los ntawm Structure Therapeutics, sau cov kev sib txawv.
Novartis 'kev tsom xam yog qhov sib npaug. Kev tsom mus rau cov hlab plawv- metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, thiab oncology, Novartis muaj 9 cov tshuaj tau pib nrog $ 1 billion + qhov muaj peev xwm siab tshaj plaws thiab 8 qhov kev tawm tsam yav tom ntej. Nws CDK4/6 inhibitor- nthuav dav hauv kev mob qog noj ntshav thaum ntxov{10}} tuaj yeem tshaj $ 10 nphom hauv kev muag khoom siab tshaj. Cov khoom tseem ceeb xws li Entresto (mob plawv), Cosentyx (IL-17A, immunology), Kesimpta (CD20, immunology), Scemblix (hematologic malignancy), Fabhalta (CFB inhibitor), thiab radiopharmaceuticals Pluvicto/Lutathera tag nrho muaj $ 3 billion+ lub peev xwm siab tshaj. Ntawm JPM, CEO Vas Narasimhan tau hais txog 12 qhov muaj peev xwm sau npe-nyeem cov ntaub ntawv (2026-2027) hauv plawv plawv thiab kev tiv thaiv kab mob.
03 Strategic M&A thiab Kev Txhim Kho Kev Lag Luam
BMS 'Boerner rov hais dua BD raws li 2026 qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws peev, nrog $ 30 nphom hauv kev cog lus nyob rau ob xyoos (tsib xyoo 2025). BMS' lub tswv yim: "ntxuav lub vas dav" tab sis ua qhov tseem ceeb rau thaj chaw kho mob paub thiab ze rau - lub sij hawm loj hlob.
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) tab tom hloov kho nws txoj kev loj hlob tshuaj kho mob ntawm M&A. Hauv 2024–2025, J&J tau txais Ambrx (rau qhov sib txawv ADC platform) thiab Intra-Cellular Therapies ($ 14.6 billion)-ob qhov kev cog lus.
Merck CEO Rob Davis tau piav qhia txog lub tuam txhab BD thawb txij li xyoo 2021: ntau dua $ 60 nphom tau nqis peev hauv kev koom tes / kev yuav khoom nrog Verona Pharma, Cidara, Daiichi Sankyo, Gilead, thiab Suav innovators (Hengrui, Kelun-Biotech, Hansoh, LaNova). Hauv 2025 ib leeg, Merck tau siv ze li $ 20 nphom rau kev yuav khoom thiab ntau dua $ 4 billion daim ntawv tso cai cov neeg sib tw / platforms los ntawm Hengrui-tag nrho los npaj rau Keytruda's patent pob tsuas.
Lwm cov tuam txhab loj tau koom nrog kev tsim kho tshiab sab nraud: Gilead tshawb nrhiav me me - mus rau -midsize M&A; Sanofi tsom mus rau kev yuav khoom thaum ntxov; AbbVie ntxiv dag zog rau oncology/CNS pipelines los ntawm deals (xws li, ImmunoGen, Cerevel) thiab kev koom tes (xws li, RemeGen rau bispecific antibody RC148).
04 Txiav - Ntug Technologies
Multinationals txhais tsis yog xwbdab tsilos txhim kho, tab sisqhov twgthiabua li cassib tw.
Ntawm thaj chaw kho mob, oncology, neuroscience, kev tiv thaiv kab mob, thiab kab mob plawv -cov kab mob metabolic yog qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua saum toj kawg nkaus. J&J lub hom phiaj los ua tus thawj coj hauv ntiaj teb oncology nrog $ 50 nphom hauv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm oncology los ntawm 2030; BMS tsom mus rau "peb-tus qauv" qauv (oncology, hlab plawv, neuroscience).
Rau cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis, ADCs, bispecific/multispecific antibodies, molecular glues, thiab gene editing yog nyiam. ADCs muaj kev sib tw tshwj xeeb: Merck, AstraZeneca, thiab Roche tau nthuav dav ntawm no -Merck's hauv - tsev B7-H3 ADC thiab ROR1 ADC tab tom nce mus thoob ntiaj teb.
AI tab tom txav los ntawm kev tshawb nrhiav mus rau kev sib koom ua ke sib sib zog nqus, ua kom muaj zog ntxiv tom ntej -gen R&D thiab kev ua haujlwm. JPM kev sib koom tes zoo tshaj plaws: Eli Lilly thiab NVIDIA tshaj tawm $ 1 nphom AI kev sib koom ua ke los daws cov teeb meem ntev ntev hauv kev tshawb nrhiav tshuaj, kev tsim kho, thiab kev tsim khoom. Pfizer npaj rau "tsim AI daim ntawv thov" hauv 2026, twb tau txiav $ 5.6 nphom hauv cov nqi ntawm AI- nrog rau kev koom ua ke ntxiv thoob plaws R&D, ntau lawm, thiab kev lag luam.
05 Xaus
Nyob rau hauv qhov tsis paub tseeb "post-blockbuster era," ntau haiv neeg tab tom txhim kho kev muaj peev xwm los taug kev mus. Qhov kev hloov pauv tswv yim zoo no-tsuas yog pib-yuav rov tsim kho thaj chaw tshuaj kho mob thoob ntiaj teb rau kaum xyoo tom ntej.
(Cov ntaub ntawv siv: Cov ntaub ntawv nthuav qhia los ntawm txhua lub tuam txhab 2026 JPM Healthcare Conference.
Tsis lees paub: Cov ntsiab lus no tsuas yog siv rau kev tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv hauv kev lag luam kws tshuaj. Cov kev xav tau nthuav tawm yog cov neeg sau thiab tsis sawv cev rau txoj haujlwm ntawm ib lub tuam txhab.)
